alarmism.watch

Every day we are warned about the imminent threats concerning climate, technology, economy, or society. “We are in an economic bubble,” or “Humanity faces mass-extinction in 20 years.” On the less alarmist side, we have pessmists warning us why something (e.g, the internet) will never work.

No doubt, there should be valid concerns about the future, but we never revisit these gloomy predictions, even when scores of them have failed to materialize.

I don't intend to make a political statement, however I want to track these claims to hold them accountable.

Predictions Listed: 102
Prediction Status Category Made About Made In
Only enough U.S. oil remained to keep the nation’s kerosene lamps burning for four years. Source Failed Resources 1800-99 1874
U.S. Geological Survey: ' . . . "little or no chance" of oil being discovered in California"' Source Failed Resources 1800-99 1885
Geologist: "The peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years." Source Failed Resources 1920-30 1919
National Conservation Commission: The nation's natural gas fields are expected to run out within 25 years and oil fields by midcentury Source Failed Resources 1940-50 1908
'Glacier National Park will vanish within 25 years' Source Failed Climate Change 1960-70 1936
Eugene Ayers, Gulf Oil researcher: 'The production in the US would peak no later than 1960.' Source Failed Climate Change 1960-70 1953
Denis Hayes: 'It is already too late to avoid mass starvation' Source Failed Climate Change 1960-70 1970
The book The Population Bomb predicted worldwide famine in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation Source Failed Resources 1970-80 1968
Best-selling book, “Famine 1975! America’s Decision: Who Will Survive?”, predicted mass starvation by 1975 Source Failed Resources 1970-80 1967
‘No End in Sight’ to 30-Year Cooling Trend Source Failed Climate Change 1970-80 1978
America will be subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980 Source Failed Resources 1970-80 1970
Dire Famine Forecast by '75 Source Failed Resources 1970-80 1967
Space Satellites show new Ice Age coming fast Source Failed Climate Change 1970-80 1974
Kenneth Watt: 'The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000' Source Failed Climate Change 1970-80 1970
Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years. Source Failed Climate Change 1980-90 1969
Ozone Depletion will cause additional 8,000 or higher cases of skin cancer by 1990 Source Failed Climate Change 1980-90 1974
By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half Source Failed Climate Change 1980-90 1970
S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute: 'between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct in 25 years' Source Failed Climate Change 1990-20 1970
Robert Metcalfe: I predict the Internet, which only just recently got this section here in InfoWorld, will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse Source Failed Economy 1990-20 1995
Barbara Ward: "If all man can offer to the decades ahead is the same combination of scientific drive, economic cupidity and national arrogance, then we cannot rate very highly the chances of reaching the year 2000 with our planet still functioning and our humanity securely preserved." Source Failed Climate Change 2000-10 1972
Robert Shiller, Yale economist: "A real estate slump could make this little recession we're having turn into something that's quite drawn out and serious" Source Correct Economy 2000-10 2001
Liberalization of Indian Economy will make India suffer “lost decade” of growth Source Failed Economy 2000-10 1991
U.N. official Mostafa Tolba: “By the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible, as any nuclear holocaust.” Source Failed Climate Change 2000-10 1982
Scientist predicts a new ice age by 21st century Source Failed Climate Change 2000-10 1970
The world's oil could disappear by 21st century Source Failed Resources 2000-10 1977
Paul Ehrlich: If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000. Source Failed Climate Change 2000-10 1969
Dr. George Wald, Harvard biochemist: 'Civilization will end in 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken' Source Failed Climate Change 2000-10 1970
Science Digest: "The world's climatologists are agree that we must prepare for the next ice age" Source Failed Climate Change 2000-10 1973
By 2010, deaths related to food shortage would be double the normal death rate Source Failed Resources 2010-20 1976
David Jones, Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis: This [Australian] Drought May Never End Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2008
Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update: "..the peak for oil production will occur much sooner, probably within the next decade." Source Failed Resources 2010-20 2005
Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy Source Failed Resources 2010-20 2002
Maldives completely under water in 30 years Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 1988
New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 1989
Al Gore: 'Entire North Polarized Cap will disappear in 5 years' Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2008
In 5-10 years, the Arctic will be free of ice Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2008
No More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020? Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2009
Facebook's $56 Billion Valuation and More Signs of the Tech Apocalypse. Source Failed Economy 2010-20 2010
Peter Wadhams, head of Polar Ocean Physics Group: "Arctic sea ice will disappear before 2020" Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2012
World Without Bees Source Failed Extinction 2010-20 2013
Mark Cuban Predicts a Stock Market Crash if Trump Wins the White House Source Failed Economy 2010-20 2016
IPCC AR4 predicts that by 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2007
Mark Cuban: This tech bubble is worse than the tech bubble of 2000 Source Failed Economy 2010-20 2015
IPCC 1990 Predicts Sea-Level Rise by 2.0-7.3 mm/yr Source Correct Climate Change 2010-20 1990
John Holdren: it is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020. Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 1987
Dr. Paul Ehrlich: “Half of the populations and species in tropical moist forests would be extinct early in the next century [the 2000s] and none would be left by 2025" Source Failed Extinction 2010-20 1981
Professor Michael T. Clare: The price of oil is currently $110 a barrel and is only set to rise due to shrinking energy supplies and an intensifying wrangle over its distribution Source Failed Resources 2010-20 2008
UK Treasury: Vote to Leave will create a 'severe shock.' In two years, GDP will be 3.6-6% lower and unemployment will increase by 500,000-800,000 Source Failed Economy 2010-20 2016
21 Indian cities will run out of ground water by 2020 Source Failed Resources 2010-20 2018
The Australian: 'Enjoy snow now . . . by 2020 it'll be gone' Source Failed Climate Change 2010-20 2012
Paul Krugman on Trump's Election: So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. Source Failed Economy 2010-20 2016
Book Mankind at the Turning Point: By 2025, 500M children could go hungry Source Very Unlikely Resources 2020-30 1976
The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic will last until 2022, but its effects on society, politics and the economy will last through 2024 and beyond Source Awaited Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
Children just aren't going to know what snow is Source Awaited Climate Change 2020-30 2000
Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts Source Awaited Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
Global air traffic won't recover from COVID-19 until 2024, says airline body Source Awaited Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
David Einhorn: ‘We Are Witnessing Our Second Tech Bubble in 15 Years’ Source Awaited Economy 2020-30 2014
The Tech Industry is in Denial, but the Bubble is About to Burst Source Awaited Economy 2020-30 2015
Coronavirus pandemic could cause 40 million deaths if left unchecked Source Very Unlikely Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: ‘Do the math,’ immunization specialist says Source Very Unlikely Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
'We Are At War,' WHO Head Says, Warning Millions Could Die From COVID-19 Source Correct Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
Donald Trump: Stock market will crash if he loses US election Source Failed Economy 2020-30 2020
Bitcoin Mining on Track to Consume All of the World's Energy by 2020 Source Failed Resources 2020-30 2017
Britain to have Siberian climate in 20 years Source Very Unlikely Climate Change 2020-30 2004
'Scottish skiing industry had no more than 20 years left.' Source Very Unlikely Climate Change 2020-30 2004
Jeremy Grantham: 'My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth, real McCoy, bubble of my investment career.' Source Awaited Economy 2020-30 2020
IHME: 'Coronavirus will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1' Source Correct Coronavirus 2020-30 2020
50 Million Environmental Refugees By 2020, Experts Predict Source Failed Climate Change 2020-30 2011
Icecaps will be melting, sea levels will be rising ... If you don't like today's weather, says Tim Radford, then wait for the horrors we could face by 2020 Source Failed Climate Change 2020-30 2004
40% of Indians will have no access to drinking water by 2030: NITI Aayog Source Awaited Resources 2020-30 2018
Maurice Strong, in Where on Earth Are We Going?, projected that in 2031, “the human tragedy” would be “on a scale hitherto unimagined.” He wrote that the brightest prospect lay in forecasts that two-thirds of the world’s already diminished population might be wiped out." Source Awaited Extinction 2030-40 1972
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at NYU: Bitcoin price will crash to zero Source Awaited Economy 2030-40 2018
U.N. Predicts entire nations could be wiped-off if Global Warming Not Reversed by 2000 Source Awaited Climate Change 2030-40 1989
"Internet as we know will end if net-neutrality is repealed." Source Awaited Economy 2030-40 2017
'The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change,' Ocasio-Cortez says Source Awaited Climate Change 2030-40 2020
Prince Charles: 'Only 8 years to save the planet' Source Awaited Climate Change 2030-40 2009
French Foreign Minister: '500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos' Source Awaited Climate Change 2030-40 2014
Marc Faber, Swiss investor: Hyperinflation in the U.S. is a certainty within the next 10 years Source Awaited Economy 2030-40 2014
Richard Smalley, Nobel Prize winner in chemistry: Oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining Source Awaited Resources 2030-40 1996
Three years of research show that by the year 2040 there will not be enough water in the world to quench the thirst of the world population and keep the current energy and power solutions going if we continue doing what we are doing today Source Awaited Resources 2030-40 2014
By 2040, according to federal government projections, extreme water shortages will be nearly ubiquitous west of Missouri Source Awaited Resources 2030-40 2020
Frightening climate change map shows Scottish cities under water in 2050 Source Awaited Climate Change 2040-50 2020
Rising sea levels could wipe out mangroves by 2050 Source Awaited Climate Change 2040-50 2020
Climate crisis: North pole 'soon to be ice free in summer', scientists say Source Awaited Climate Change 2040-50 2020
Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows Source Awaited Climate Change 2040-50 2019
Climate Scientists to World: We Have Only 20 Years Before There’s No Turning Back Source Awaited Climate Change 2040-50 2018
Food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 Source Awaited Resources 2040-50 2018
By 2050, up to $106 billion worth of coastal property will likely be below sea level Source Awaited Climate Change 2040-50 2017
We've only got 10 years to save the planet, warns Prince Charles on the 50th anniversary of landmark speech he gave on plastic pollution and other threats to the environment Source Awaited Climate Change 2050-60 2020
Over 143 million people could be forced to move by 2050 Source Awaited Climate Change 2050-60 2018
The environment in 2050: flooded cities, forced migration – and the Amazon turning to savannah Source Awaited Climate Change 2050-60 2019
Amazon Rainforest Will Collapse by 2064, New Study Predicts Source Awaited Climate Change 2060-70 2021
One-third of plant and animal species could be gone in 50 years Source Awaited Extinction 2070-80 2020
'Present Rate of Cooling will Bring Glacial Temperatures in 100 years' Source Awaited Climate Change 2070-80 1972
Cynthia Rosenzweig: "By 2080, when today's children are elderly, Tens of millions of additional people could go hungry. " Source Awaited Climate Change 2070-80 2007
Cherry Blossom could be blooming a month early by 2080 Source Awaited Climate Change 2070-80 2012
13 Million in US Could Become Climate Refugees Source Awaited Climate Change 2100-10 2016
Climate change: Polar bears could be lost by 2100 Source Awaited Climate Change 2100-10 2020
Climate change: UK could hit 40C 'regularly' by end of this century Source Awaited Climate Change 2100-10 2020
558 Mammal Species Could Go Extinct by 2100 as World Enters Second Wave of Extinction: Study Source Awaited Extinction 2100-10 2020
Mass extinction in the next 100 years, scientists warn Source Awaited Extinction 2100-10 2020
Climate change could cost the U.S. up to 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, study finds Source Awaited Climate Change 2100-10 2019

Last Updated: Apr 03, 2021

Made by: @shubhamjainco